ARE YOU READY FOR THE BIRTH OF A NEW COUNTRY?

Kurdistan and the Middle East Jigsaw Puzzle

Atique Naqvi | Boston

Masoud Barzani's term ended in August 2015 but he refuses to step down.

Masoud Barzani, the 70-year-old President of Iraqi Kurdistan, is an old man in a hurry. Barzani’s latest tweet about the referendum for Kurdish independence and an eventual breakaway from Iraq will add another chapter to the politically charged yet tragic soap opera in the Middle East theater.

Barzani’s tweet last week read: “I am pleased to announce that the date for the independence referendum has been set for Monday, September 25, 2017.”

The specific tweet not only took the Baghdad-based federal Iraqi government by an unpleasant surprise, it also sent chills in Ankara, Turkey, and Tehran, Iran.

A couple of years back, when I met Barzani in Davos, Switzerland, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Summit, he was more than happy to take me through the achievements of semi-autonomous state of Kurdistan in Iraq – political stability, security, ease of doing business et al.

He sounded quite comfortable talking about the independent Kurdistan, but as a journalist when I asked him: When an independent Kurdistan is surrounded by unfriendly states of Turkey in the north, Iran in the east and Iraq to the south and the west, who he’d count on for support. The interview ended abruptly, and the comfortable Barzani suddenly sounded nervous and excused himself saying he was getting late for a meeting.

Now, the Middle East is clearly divided into two camps. Countries are either with Saudi Arabia or with Iran, and I am not here to judge or take sides. Within the Middle East, there is a group of rich oil-producing countries called Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprising six countries – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar. Currently, the fate of Qatar hangs in balance after the fellow Arab countries imposed economic sanctions accusing Qatar of sponsoring extremist groups and funding terrorists.

Qatar has denied the allegations saying it is being punished for having an independent foreign policy and due to its friendly ties with Iran.

Coming back to Barzani and his Kurdistan dream. There is a strong possibility that an independent Kurdistan will join the Saudi Arabian camp. Though Baghdad’s government has been neutral at best during GCC-Qatar showdown, the government of Haider Al-Abadi is viewed as a strong Iranian ally in the Arab world.

Despite being viewed as an Iranian friend, Haider Al-Abadi, the Iraqi Prime Minister, is expected to meet with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud next week, supposedly to diffuse GCC-Qatar crisis, but one of the main agendas of Al-Abadi’s Saudi visit is to muster support from its powerful southern neighbor to dissuade Kurdish leadership from seeking independence.

Barzani and his government have been working closely with Saudi Arabia. According to Kurdish media network Rudaw, a Saudi Royal Envoy met with Barzani and Kurdish officials in March 2017 and promised financial aid and the establishment of the center for the King Salman Foundation for humanitarian purposes.

Rudaw’s English news website reports: “Relations between Riyad (sic) and Erbil have thrived over the past decade as Iraq’s Shiite-led government increasingly favored stronger ties to the Islamic Republic in Iran whose rivalry with the Saudi kingdom has recast regional alliances in the Middle East.

“Tehran has openly accused Saudi Arabia of funding Iranian Kurdish groups opposed to the Islamic Republic, a claim Erbil has long rejected.”

ENERGY-RICH REGION

Business and politics in Erbil, the capital city of Iraqi Kurdistan, has been thriving for the past decade or so with a temporary slowdown owing to the increased activities of the terror group ISIS in the region.

Per Kurdistan Regional Government’s estimates, the region is home to 50 billion barrels of oil, which is 33% of the total proven oil reserves (150 billion barrels) of the unified Iraq. In addition, the unified nation has 110 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, while the Kurdistan region has 8-10 trillion cubic meters.

The energy-rich Kurdistan as an independent country will be landlocked in an unfriendly neighborhood. Turkey is already at war with Kurdish rebels in the eastern parts of the country, and a creation of an independent Kurdish state will boost activities of Kurds living in eastern Turkey, creating a very uncomfortable situation for Ankara’s government.

To export oil or natural gas, sea transport and pipelines are a given solution so Kurdistan with huge energy assets won’t be able to sell its products independently.

Probably, this is the reason that former Prime Minister of Kurdistan Regional Government Dr. Barham Ahmed Salih is not a supporter of an independent Kurdish state. Talking about the energy reserves of Iraq and Kurdistan region, he told me during an interview in 2012, when ‘we can reap the fruits of 100%, why we should settle for less’. And he specifically mentioned the logistical challenges of energy exports from independent Kurdistan.

On the other hand, Barzani’s efforts to be known as the founder of an independent Kurdistan have come under scrutiny for several reasons. Even a large group of Iraqi Kurds has accused the Barzani family of political and economic corruption. Members of Barzani family occupy all top posts in government and related departments.

Masoud Barzani’s presidential term expired in August 2015, but he continues to stay in power, while his nephew Nechervan Barzani is the Prime Minister of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Masoud Barzani’s son is the head of the Kurdish intelligence department. Basically, if you are in Kurdistan, the Barzanis have you covered!    

LOOKING AHEAD

An independent Kurdistan will become a future Yemen, where powerful archrivals of the region will fight their proxy wars. However, there is a difference. Contrary to Yemen, Kurdistan is energy-rich and a conflict in the new country will impact the global crude oil prices.

The new country, if and when it’s created, will bring temporary economic benefits to the oil producers of the Middle East, as crude prices will increase substantially. However, in the long run, an independent Kurdistan would be nothing more than a political and an economic lever that could be applied for the benefit of the new country's much powerful and stronger neighbors, including Turkey, Iran, and Iraq.

So, take a deep breath and wait for September 25, 2017. It’s your choice to applaud or boo, as one more character in the Middle East soap opera is about to enter the stage.

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